GAO Report Cites Small Cargo Operator Safety Concerns

From 1997 through 2008, 443 accidents involving cargo-only carriers took place, which included 93 fatal accidents. Small cargo carriers were involved in 79 percent of all accidents and 96 percent of fatal accidents. Accident rates for large cargo carriers fluctuated during this period, but they were comparable to the accident rate for large passenger carriers in 2007.

Although several factors contributed to the air cargo accidents, GAO review of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) data found that pilot performance was identified as a probable cause for about 80 percent of fatal and about 53 percent of non-fatal cargo accidents. Furthermore, the GAO's analysis of NTSB reports for the 93 fatal accidents, using an FAA flight-risk checklist, identified three or more risk factors in 63 of the accidents. Risk factors included low pilot experience, winter weather, and nighttime operations. The State of Alaska's challenging operating conditions and remotely located populations that rely on air cargo were also a contributing factor.

Efforts to improve air cargo safety generally focus on large carriers. The air cargo experts that GAO surveyed ranked voluntary disclosure programs—in which participating carriers voluntarily disclose safety events to the FAA—as the most effective effort to improve air cargo, but two of the three main voluntary disclosure programs are typically used only by large carriers. However, several industry initiatives focus on carriers with smaller aircraft, such as the Medallion Foundation, which has improved small aircraft safety in Alaska through training and safety audits.

The two actions experts cited most often to further improve air cargo safety were installing better technology on cargo aircraft to provide additional tools to pilots and collecting data to track small cargo carrier operations. Using flight risk checklists can also help pilots assess the accumulated risk factors associated with some cargo flights. SMS Pro™ has a Flight Risk Assessment tool in the application that helps pilots and dispatchers assess flight risks for any type of flight operation. For more information go to the SMS Partners website.


Cap and Trade - Curtailing Carbon Emissions

On June 26 the U.S. House of Representatives passed the American Clean Energy and Security Act. The bill's narrow margin of victory (219 to 212) makes Senate passage an open question, but it is likely that some form of emissions-control bill will be passed by Congress this year. The Obama administration is pushing hard for a law before the U.N.'s climate change conference in December and is strongly in favor of a market-based "cap and trade" scheme to regulate and reduce emissions.

Once a cap-and-trade program is implemented, the government will issue a fixed number of carbon credits to give the bearer the right to release one ton of carbon into the atmosphere over a year. In future years, the number of credits issued will shrink, reducing our collective green house gas emissions. The government is going to create a market for carbon that could easily grow to eclipse even the current energy markets.

It is estimated that around 6 billion carbon credits per year will initially be in circulation with the price speculated at $13 to $20 each. Even on the low end, carbon is on track to be a three-quarters-of-a-trillion-dollar market. Bart Chilton, commissioner of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, forecasted that carbon trading could grow to a $2-trillion futures market within five years.

Europe achieved success with cap and trade as its system, which was based on the U.S. scheme to reduce acid rain. One problem—the initial "cap" on emissions was too high and many polluters came under the cap and didn't do any trading, which resulted in an oversupply of carbon allowances. Coupled with meager demand, the oversupply drove the prices down. You would have to wonder if a similar thing would happen in the U.S. carbon market, in which case a government windfall from a cap-and-trade system would never materialize. Cap and trade can work, but polluters must be prevented from manipulating the system at the regulatory level. Being allowed to participate in setting the cap is an invitation to price volatility.

FAA Gets More Money for Inspectors

In May 2009 the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) unveiled a $16B budget proposal for FY 2010 that focuses on the NextGen air traffic control system and air traffic controller staffing issues. The FAA's operations account for the largest share of the proposed budget with $9.34B for funding increased controller staffing, employee salary increases, and maintenance and operating costs of air traffic control systems.

The budget also provides for an increase in the inspector work force with approximately $1.2B marked for aviation safety. The budget would continue staffing increases of the past three years plus an additional 36 positions. Previously, tight budgets forced the FAA to scale back the number of inspectors in FY 2006 resulting in a backlog of certification projects. Despite the efforts to add more inspectors, industry requirements will continue to strain the FAA's resources with surveillance of existing certificate holders remaining top priority while new certification projects will have to be prioritized and sequenced based on the number of available resources.

The designee system remains a key element for the FAA to leverage resources as it relies on 11,000 designees and 28,000 others that have flight-check or inspection authority. Despite the recent Capitol Hill criticism of the FAA, it still believes that cooperation with industry safety programs is the key to improving safety. The FAA is already working with industry representatives to help establish safety management systems (SMS) and strongly believes implementing an SMS is a significant and positive business and cultural change in the way safety is managed. To be most effective, SMS requires risk management, systems thinking and processes, evaluation and analysis. The FAA plans to issue an order that establishes the requirement and guiding structure for SMS implementation within the FAA in FY 2010.

Current JDA Projects:

Airspace and obstruction evaluation services for 18 building and tower development firms.

Airspace and surveillance impact analysis for Reagan National Airport (DCA) in support of the Arlington County redevelopment plan.

Conducting a maintenance program assessment for Sundance Helicopter.

Developing airport obstacle clearance standards in accordance with AC 150/5300-13 Airport Design Standards for two firms proposing development projects adjacent to airports.

New Part 121 Operating Certificate and associated operating manuals
for a Part 135 operator.

New Part 145 Operating Certificate and associated manuals for an avionics maintenance facility.

Obstacle evaluation (Part 77 and TERPS) surface development for Jack Edwards Airport, Gulf Shores, Alabama.

Operations, Safety, Maintenance and Culture Assessment and Survey
for a Part 121 operator.

RNAV procedure design and validation in support of airspace mitigation efforts in Tampa, Florida.

Site planning and airspace analysis for a major wind turbine development firm.

Supporting three law firms in aviation litigation management.